A Conservative minister has been grilled by BBC presenter Rishi Sunak over claims the UK is heading for a hung parliament on the subsequent election.
Well being Secretary Maria Caulfield struggled to reply as Justin Webb identified main flaws within the Prime Minister’s argument.
Sunak stated evaluation of final week’s native elections, during which the Tories misplaced nearly 500 seats, confirmed Keir Starmer wouldn’t win a majority and must be “supported by the SNP, Lib Dems and Greens”.
That was a reference to a projection by polling skilled Michael Thrasher, who stated the outcomes steered Labor’s lead over the Conservatives was simply seven factors, properly under what pollsters had been saying for months.
However different polling consultants identified that Thrasher’s forecast was based mostly on the belief that Scotland – the place there have been no native elections final week – would vote because it did in 2019, when Labor gained only one seat.
Talking on Radio 4’s This Morning, Webb advised Caulfield: “Let’s have a look at what you and the Prime Minister rely upon.
“First: it is not a prediction, it is a projection based mostly on these outcomes. In different phrases, if these outcomes have been repeated, it could be the results of a normal election. Nonetheless, individuals vote much more third-party in native elections than typically elections.
“Quantity two, what number of seats would Labor win in Scotland on this projection?”
Caulfield replied: “Effectively, I feel as a result of it was an English native election it does not have an effect on the Scottish outcome.”
Webb then advised her, “It is speculated to be the identical as final time, so one spot. Do you critically suppose it’s doubtless that Labor will win only one seat in Scotland?
The minister dodged the query and replied: “The polls are simply projections and earlier than these native elections the polls have been clearly unhealthy.
However Webb stated: “So that you consider that in Scotland Labor will solely win one seat on the subsequent election? Is it a job requirement of the Prime Minister as a result of it seems prefer it?”
The minister stated: “This isn’t our evaluation and the BBC has additionally carried out its personal evaluation and has proven that there can be a hung parliament based mostly on these outcomes.”
Webb then advised her, “However that is the purpose, is not it? However based mostly on these outcomes, nobody is suggesting that these outcomes can be repeated within the normal election. Specialists don’t counsel this.
“I advised you that the Prime Minister, if he’s proposing this to his personal occasion, thinks they’re fools.
However Caulfield stated: “We will see from these outcomes that individuals are not switching to Labour. Labor did not get the outcomes they anticipated in locations like Teesside or Harlow, regardless that they threw the kitchen sink at some.
“Our voters have a tendency to remain at house in the intervening time. They do not desire a Labor authorities.
“The polls that stated we would lose by about 20% did not come true in London, they did not come true with Andy Avenue within the West Midlands and we have had good outcomes too.”