Chances of replacing VDL:
Thierry Breton
Why? He is French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he was a “plan B” candidate to become European commissioner in 2019 (he only stepped down after the first choice, Sylvie Goulard, was eliminated during confirmation hearings in Parliament). He strongly indicated that he was open to becoming Plan B again if von der Leyen's candidacy failed. As a former French finance minister, Breton has senior leadership experience and, although not from the EPP, is conservative. His track record as a former director-general who put industrial policy back on the Commission's agenda allows him to argue that he should lead an EU executive that will be much more focused on competitiveness.
Breton also emerged as von der Leyen's most vocal critic in the Brussels bubble. In an infamous tweet that followed her nomination as the EPP's lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission chief did not exactly have unanimous support in the EPP for a second term. He was also part of a group of commissioners who criticized her choice of Markus Pieper as Commissioner for SMEs. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” about von der Leyen's tweet, other French officials have since said le president he wasn't that upset after all.
Why not? Breton may have more enemies than friends in the highest circles of the EU, including within the Commission and in many EU countries, with many questioning his track record. His brash self-promotion and reputation for talking before delivering angered fellow commissioners – among them competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was expected to work with.
A malicious (and anonymous!) article published in the French outlet Atlantico described Breton as “the worst French commissioner in the last 30 years”, suggesting that he has rivals determined to undermine him. Furthermore, the EPP is not, and the controversy surrounding his tenure as head of French technology firm Atos is believed to be the main responsibility for any confirmation by the European Parliament.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Surprise
Why? The protracted bargaining between political groups for Europe's top jobs after the EU elections is always full of surprises. In 2019, no one would bet on von der Leyen becoming President of the Commission; Brussels could well be surprised by a candidate they have never heard of or met before.
Why not? We have no idea who it might be (otherwise it wouldn't be a surprise).
Chances of replacing VDL:
Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Šejla Ahmatović and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reports from Brussels.