The timetable for the next referendum “depends very much on uncertain politics,” he said. But he added: “I wouldn't be surprised if it happened before 2040.”
Curtice – a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a respected Westminster pollster – argued that another referendum could not be ruled out because of the way different age groups voted in 2016.
“If you look this far back at what's happened with attitudes, and if you look at the age profile of attitudes to Brexit, you can see why,” he said. The Ipsos poll showed 75 per cent of 18-24 year olds remained to vote (25 per cent for Leave) compared to 34 per cent of 65-74 year olds (66 per cent for Leave).
The stance of the incoming Labor government – which POLITICO polls say is highly likely to win the next election – will also be crucial to the EU, Curtice argued. He asked: “How is our relationship with the EU developing, to what extent will the next Labor government soften it or not?”
Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy has repeatedly said the EU will be Labour's “number one priority” in rebuilding relations with international allies – but the party has ruled out trying to rejoin the bloc or its single market and customs union.
But Curtice said: “One of the things to realize is that the Labor Party will be elected by voters who are three-quarters anti-Brexit… The Labor vote is almost as anti-Brexit as it was in 2019.”