Both Russia and Iran have experienced a decline in international standing in recent years. And as each seeks ways to increase its military and diplomatic influence, Africa looks like a land of opportunity.
There are no signs that Moscow and Tehran, whose bilateral ties have grown tighter as they both seek to counter punitive international sanctions, are moving in lockstep in Africa.
But their goals on the continent often overlap, and experts say both are trying to capitalize on similar situations, including political instability, war and apathy towards the influence of Western powers.
“Both Iran and Russia, what they see in Africa is an opportunity to break their diplomatic isolation,” said Cameron Hudson, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “They’ve been isolated by the West, financially, politically – basically labeled an outcast. And so they see 54 opportunities in Africa to break that status.”
Russia and Iran have stepped up their cooperation with African states, some of which are wary of the West and open to seeking alternative trade and investment partners. Tehran and Moscow are particularly active in conflict zones such as West Africa and the Sahel, where juntas have made it clear that Western forces are not welcome.
Hudson said Moscow and Tehran’s involvement in Africa also had the “side benefit of pointing its nose” at Western nations behind the crippling international sanctions imposed on them.
The sanctions — imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s controversial nuclear program, among other reasons — have effectively cut off both Russia and Iran from the global financial system and damaged their lucrative arms and oil trade.
New classes
By opening new avenues of trade and influence in Africa, Moscow and Tehran can show that attempts to isolate and punish them “are only marginally successful and that they can build coalitions of states that support their interests,” Hudson said.
Both countries see Africa as a “battleground where they can push the West out and gain a better position economically, politically and even militarily in the event of long-term tensions with the West,” said Liam Karr, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
Karr noted that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – former French colonies in the central Sahel, where anti-Western military juntas have seized power – have “increased cooperation with Iran and Russia as they distance themselves from France”.
The situation has already led to the expulsion of French troops from Niger and Mali. US forces battling Islamist insurgents in the region have withdrawn from Niger’s capital, Niamey, and will leave the country entirely by September.
The rapidly changing landscape has led to some awkward situations, such as when Russian troops supporting Niger’s junta were deployed to an airbase housing US troops in May.
Both Iran and Russia “use military engagements to ‘get in the door’ with unstable or other isolated countries to seek greater economic and political cooperation,” Karr explained. Such military deployment, he added, also “allows them to use limited resources to threaten critical waterways such as the Mediterranean and Red Seas.”
‘Opportunity In Chaos’
Moscow’s influence is characterized by high political involvement, trade negotiations including arms sales, and the ubiquitous presence of pro-Kremlin mercenaries in conflict areas.
“Russia finds opportunity in chaos. And so when there is political instability in a country, when there is a certain organic rejection of the West, which we have seen in many states in Africa that see the West as a kind of neo-colonial actor, then it creates openings and opportunities for Russia to come in with its story,” Hudson said.
Russia’s military footprint is also the most dangerous, as evidenced by the deaths of many of Russia’s Wagner mercenaries fighting Tuareg separatists linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network in Mali last month.
Iran is trying to catch up with its Russian ally and is trying to expand its influence on the continent through trade ties, arms sales and the use of proxies and militant partners as part of its “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West in general. .
In West Africa, Iran has reached out to a trio of juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. In Nigeria, Tehran has established a proxy group called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, which functions as other proxies and partners.
Tehran has too proxy used to make his presence felt across the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, allowing him to exert more pressure on regional adversaries, especially Israel.
“Combined Interests”
Iran’s and Russia’s interests in Africa sometimes overlap, as in the case of Niger and Sudan, where both play a role in the year-long civil war between the Sudanese army and rebel forces.
“Sudan is clearly an area where both have military interests. Both Iran and Russia have offered military support to the Sudanese armed forces in the hope of securing a military base on the Red Sea coast of Sudan that would allow them to improve their military position in the vis area. -à- vis the West,” Karr said. “Iran offered drones, while Russia offered ‘unlimited qualitative military assistance.’
Juntas that have taken power in Mali and Niger, meanwhile, are looking to Moscow and Tehran to consolidate their positions.
“They certainly lack legitimacy in the West and among international institutions, so building relationships with Iran or with Russia helps them build legitimacy because suddenly they look like state actors,” Hudson said. “They look like they’re doing business and diplomacy that a legitimate government would do.”
Both Karr and Hudson say there are no clear signs that Russia and Iran are coordinating their strategies in Africa.
Karr said that “similar goals and methods mean that most of their efforts are mutually reinforcing”, while Hudson noted “a set of interrelated interests, but not interests that are explicitly coordinated”.
