Negotiations aimed at ending Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip were faltering before the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU-US-designated Palestinian terror group Hamas.
But the assassination of Haniyeh in a suspected Israeli strike in Iran on July 31 makes a ceasefire agreement or even resumption of talks even less likely.
The 62-year-old played a key role in internationally brokered talks to reach a permanent ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave and secure the release of many Israeli hostages. He was also considered relatively moderate within the organization.
“How can mediation succeed when one side murders the other side’s negotiators?” Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani asked on July 31. The Gulf Arab state, along with Egypt, brokered the monthly talks.
Egypt’s foreign ministry expressed a similar view, saying the killing undermined peace talks.
Hamas’s military wing said the assassination of Haniya on the outskirts of Tehran was a “watershed” that would “raise the war to a new level”.
Despite its threats, Hamas may not have the military capacity to retaliate. It is already recovering from Israel’s brutal 10-month war in Gaza, which Palestinian health officials say has killed nearly 40,000 people, mostly civilians.
Even then, the group is unlikely to be looking forward to further negotiations now. Beyond the prospect of a boycott, there are also practical considerations.
Haniyeh was a highly experienced figure with global recognition who was used to managing relationships with key allies in the Middle East and beyond. Some of his latest photos show him hugging Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Based in Qatar, he was able to travel and appear at important meetings.
His death leaves a significant void and it is unclear who will succeed him.
Yehya Al-Sinwar is the head of Hamas’ armed wing and is widely believed to have masterminded the group’s October 7 attack that killed about 1,200 Israelis. Hundreds more were taken hostage. He is currently believed to be hiding in Gaza.
Another senior figure, Zaher Jabarin, leads the group in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is partially controlled by the Palestinian Authority. He is also in hiding.
Israel has vowed to wipe out the Hamas leadership, and both men are seen as prime targets.
A new leader could emerge from the Hamas political office in Qatar, but that is likely to take some time and it is unclear what position they would take.
Haniyeh was cast by some as a pragmatist in contrast to the more hard-line elements of Gaza-based Hamas. But he was also designated a terrorist by the United States and expressed support for the October 7 attacks.
Even if Hamas decides to keep talking, it’s unclear who would have the capacity and authority to represent the group in high-stakes negotiations.
Iranian state television said the killing of Haniyeh would delay further talks for “several months”.
Many observers have also suggested that the assassination of Haniyeh increases the risk of regional conflict. Khamenei quickly blamed Israel and vowed that Iran would avenge Haniya’s death, lending credence to those concerns.
A major escalation would likely make the prospect of Israel-Hamas talks even more remote, let alone progress.
But much will depend on the actions of Iran and its network of militant groups and proxies in the region. In considering its response, Tehran and its allies are likely to tread a fine line between saving face and provoking a damaging Israeli retaliation.
If Iran can avoid a serious escalation, it would remove one obstacle to the resumption of talks between Israel and Hamas in the future.
But that’s considered a big “if.”
Iran also accused the United States of killing Haniyeh because of Washington’s military, economic and diplomatic support for Israel.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken denied that Washington had any involvement or prior knowledge of the attack.
But he was particularly cautious about commenting on where Haniyeh’s killing left prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza, saying only on July 31 that “the imperative to reach a ceasefire, the importance it has for everyone, remains.”
