There was always a bit of dancing going on in the last years before the Bute House deal. The Greens would say they won’t support it, the SNP would say, are you sure, the Greens a little extra and then they did it.
Not this time though.
We’re in a post-Bute House Agreement world, and after Tuesday’s austerity and Wednesday’s Program for Government, the Greens – who have supported every SNP budget since 2016 – are pretty furious.
Lorna Slater says pledges to ban conversion therapy, maximum rail fares, the wildlife restoration fund, rent controls and free bus travel for asylum seekers have been “withdrawn, cut, watered down or shelved”.
She even used the word “treason” in the chamber.
It is hard to see a path from betrayal to supporting the budget.
If the SNP’s budget bill is defeated at stage 1 or stage 3, the government can try again or amend it or introduce a whole new bill.
Failure to pass the budget bill does not automatically mean the fall of the government, but a government that cannot get the budget bill passed clearly does not have the confidence of parliament.
This could mean a vote of no confidence in the government, which if successful could mean the resignation of the First Minister, which could then put us in a situation where MSPs cannot agree on a replacement within 28 days, which could then trigger an emergency general election.
During the SNP’s first stint as a minority government from 2007 to 2011, then First Minister Alex Salmond and his Chancellor of the Exchequer John Swinney were able to pass their budget thanks to the support of Tory MSPs.
But things got a little messy in 2009, when her budget proposal was defeated by the casting vote of the speaker of parliament, who by convention votes for the status quo.
Rather than risk a snap election, an amended budget was tabled a week later and passed with the support of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrat MSP.
Holyrood arithmetic means John Swinney needs the support of one more party to push through his spending plans.
There are 129 MSPs in Parliament and the First Minister needs 65 of them.
It currently has 62.
We can assume that John Mason is likely to support the budget – although we still don’t know how long his administrative suspension will last due to his social media comments about the war in Gaza.
Before the Holyrood group can act, the party’s behavior committee has yet to meet.
It is possible that he is still out of the party when the vote is taken in February. Or it may be that they are not allowed to return at all.
And if there’s anything he’s unhappy about, well… In the meantime, we’ll put him in the mebbe aye pile. That’s 63.
Could Ash Regan be tempted? An Alba source says they will need to see “action on independence, trying to govern competently again and focus on getting back on the people’s agenda on health, the economy and jobs”.
The party says it hopes Mrs Regan “will have the opportunity to discuss specific policy matters with the Scottish Government for inclusion in the Budget if the First Minister meets with her before the proposal is published”.
In particular, they would like support for her bid to introduce a Nordic model to Scotland and make it a criminal offense to pay for sexual services.
So let’s support First Minister Alba for the sake of argument. That put him at 64.
Labor and Tory sources insist they will open good faith talks with the SNP when the time comes.
But there are red lines and a looming Holyrood election, and can either party really support a John Swinney administration?
That seems unlikely.
Which leaves the Lib Dems.
Can they be redeemed? If one of them can be persuaded to abstain, then John Swinney only needs 64.
The FM is, we are told, the deal maker and the Lib Dems say they are willing to do a deal.
But the SNP don’t seem mad.
“It doesn’t strike me as a government party trying too hard to make friends,” a source told the Times.
“Maybe they don’t intend to pass the budget and we might go into the country sooner rather than later.”
